BANKNIFTY : STEP-by-STEP analysis of the CHANGE OF TREND
The index is currently trading below a key swing support of 17500 & in coming days we expect the sell-off to continue towards13400 level of support at least till it doesn't breach 19500 on opposite side. Below is a reason of what i am saying on charts :
I've divided the index chart in two parts for better understanding.First chart is showing data till APRIL-2015 & the second chart below is showing current market data. On first chart, we can see a strong uptrend build-up session with clean higher high & higher lows since oct-2013 to FEB-2015 and thereon price started showing exhaustion in it's upward momentum.The way price was holding previous swing low support of 10300 during first few weeks of 2014, we started seeing the same to happen during first few weeks of 2015 which created a hope that price may reverse back up & continue it's upward momentum,hence we started waiting for confirmation there. We got few chances to ride the uptrend using 20ema(learn : 20ema strategy), trend pullbacks & trend continuation breakout strategies using lower & higher timeframes.
Below is the updated index chart till today. Here comes the interesting part – we can see price failed to hold the minor support around 18500 like how it held on 2014 ( as discussed earlier) which gives you the first hint of a probable trend change.Finally , price broke the previous higher low swing for the first time since 2013 around 17500 which is another sign of "we are going down!!!!!!!". The most important sign i've noticed to confirm my analysis is "PRICE STARTED MAKING LOWER-HIGH & LOWER-LOW" & rejection of price is quite strong on it's previous swing high which clearly tells us " sellers are entering this market in every possible way !!!"
Finally, i hope i was able to clarify my point of view regarding the change of direction in the index. I'll be hunting every possible sell signals from hereon till price reaches key support of 13500 level & the entire analysis is valid till price is not flying above the recent made lower-high swing layer of 19500.
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PLS NOTE : All chart analysis posted here are the author's own idea of trading for educational purpose only & not any form of advice or recommendations or opinion to anyone.